Mercados não funcionam? Então tome esta, mané!

Markets as Information Sources: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal: "Markets as Information Sources

Hal Varian writes:

The Iowa Electronic Markets won again with an extremely accurate prediction 5 days before the election:

Actual Iowa Electronic Markets
for recall 54.3% 53.5%
against recall 45.7% 44.5%
Schwarzenegger 46.8% 47.0%
Bustamante 32.4% 30.1%

Source:

http://apnews.myway.com//article/20031008/D7U20PN80.html
http://128.255.244.60/quotes/69.html
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Recall.html"

Ficou embolado de ler? Então vou ajudar: actual (54.3%) e Iowa (53.5%) na primeira linha. Siga o restante para ver...