Iraque, petróleo e a "Dutch (Political) Disease" que vem aí
Iraquianos não terão um bom futuro, na minha opinião. Eles ainda insistem em manter a produção do petróleo estatizada e não pensaram em nenhum tipo de arranjo a la Alaska para o setor.
Leia mais clicando no trecho abaixo.
Hudson Institute > American Outlook >As things now seem to be shaping up, any hope for major changes in the structure of Iraq’s oil industry has become the most important victim. Pentagon sources say that all energy, physical and intellectual, is being absorbed by the current attempt to gain control of the country, at the expense of all other policy chores. When all is said and done, Iraq will have a state-owned-and-operated monopoly oil industry that is a dutiful member of the OPEC cartel, providing a flow of funds to a central government that we will find uncongenial. Indeed, even if we do find the energy to attempt to plant the seeds of a free-market economy of the sort that our designated administrator, Paul Bremer, originally had in mind, it is unlikely that those seeds will flower in Iraq’s desert soil and hostile climate—witness the rallying of Iraq’s business class around the protectionist banner. (One leading Iraqi businessman says that in the absence of protection from foreign competition, “local companies will be completely smashed” [Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2003], a not-unreasonable assumption given the lack of investment in these companies for several decades, and their forced operation in a non-market economy.)
Iraquianos não terão um bom futuro, na minha opinião. Eles ainda insistem em manter a produção do petróleo estatizada e não pensaram em nenhum tipo de arranjo a la Alaska para o setor.
Leia mais clicando no trecho abaixo.
Hudson Institute > American Outlook >As things now seem to be shaping up, any hope for major changes in the structure of Iraq’s oil industry has become the most important victim. Pentagon sources say that all energy, physical and intellectual, is being absorbed by the current attempt to gain control of the country, at the expense of all other policy chores. When all is said and done, Iraq will have a state-owned-and-operated monopoly oil industry that is a dutiful member of the OPEC cartel, providing a flow of funds to a central government that we will find uncongenial. Indeed, even if we do find the energy to attempt to plant the seeds of a free-market economy of the sort that our designated administrator, Paul Bremer, originally had in mind, it is unlikely that those seeds will flower in Iraq’s desert soil and hostile climate—witness the rallying of Iraq’s business class around the protectionist banner. (One leading Iraqi businessman says that in the absence of protection from foreign competition, “local companies will be completely smashed” [Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2003], a not-unreasonable assumption given the lack of investment in these companies for several decades, and their forced operation in a non-market economy.)
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