Federação Iraquiana e uma proposta alternativa
O experimento institucional que se iniciará em 30 de junho tem tudo para dar certo....também para dar com os burros n' água. O novo Iraque, pretende-se, será uma espécie de federação. Claro, uma federação é sempre mais bem-vinda entre cientistas políticos e economistas, do que estados unitários.
Entretanto, a questão institucional, diz o sr. Morse, está sendo deixada de lado. Sua proposta - cujo trecho reproduzo - é interessante. Se você for comentar esta proposta, leia, por favor, toda ela, clicando no trecho abaixo. Vale a pena porque instituições geram mais ou menos prosperidade. Logo, instituições são incentivos. E, claro, incentivos errados geram maior perda de bem-estar do que....
The most commonly espoused partition plan calls for a three-way partition of the state formerly known as Iraq, a "Kurdistan" in the north, a "Shiastan" in the south, and a "Sunnistan" in between. This article proposes something different. Neither the American-led coalition, nor even the larger international community should determine the borders of a set of Iraqi successor states. The people of Iraq should be the ones to decide where partition lines are drawn. The people of Iraq should be the ones to decide if partition lines need to be drawn at all.
Here is the plan. Sovereignty will not come to Iraq all at once. On June 30, Iraq will be divided into provinces, or occupation zones -- at different times and different places, both labels will be appropriate. There will be more than three zones, there will be at least 25, maybe as many as 100. Each zone will evolve towards civil government at its own rate. Some zones will need to be overseen using the rules of outright military occupation of a hostile nation. Other zones will be able to quickly establish full home rule, complete civil government in all matters except foreign policy and military affairs. Over six months, let's see how many zones can produce a local government that can rule without slaughtering a significant percentage of its own population, or stoning women for committing adultery, or burning the foreign nationals providing electricity and water.
Zones demonstrating the ability to live peacefully will be migrated towards full home rule. When enough provinces reach complete home rule, they will have important decisions to make. If enough zones decided to band together, they can form a state of their own. (There will have to be a few basic rules about a minimum number of provinces, or a minimum total population, and/or territorial contiguousness required to form a state.) They are free to welcome into their state other provinces that reach full home rule at a future time. Multi-province successor states may even reserve the right to join with other multi-province successor states.
Se eu fosse mais esperto no manejo do computador, faria um fórum a la "mini-ONU" para as pessoas tentarem administrar um Iraque destes. Seria uma bela experiência (como o Simcity, aquele bom joguinho de simulação da minha geração), principalmente para ver se funciona.
De qualquer forma, a proposta válida é da federação iraquiana, não a do mr. Morse. Mas isto não nos impede de pensar na proposta dele, certo?
O experimento institucional que se iniciará em 30 de junho tem tudo para dar certo....também para dar com os burros n' água. O novo Iraque, pretende-se, será uma espécie de federação. Claro, uma federação é sempre mais bem-vinda entre cientistas políticos e economistas, do que estados unitários.
Entretanto, a questão institucional, diz o sr. Morse, está sendo deixada de lado. Sua proposta - cujo trecho reproduzo - é interessante. Se você for comentar esta proposta, leia, por favor, toda ela, clicando no trecho abaixo. Vale a pena porque instituições geram mais ou menos prosperidade. Logo, instituições são incentivos. E, claro, incentivos errados geram maior perda de bem-estar do que....
The most commonly espoused partition plan calls for a three-way partition of the state formerly known as Iraq, a "Kurdistan" in the north, a "Shiastan" in the south, and a "Sunnistan" in between. This article proposes something different. Neither the American-led coalition, nor even the larger international community should determine the borders of a set of Iraqi successor states. The people of Iraq should be the ones to decide where partition lines are drawn. The people of Iraq should be the ones to decide if partition lines need to be drawn at all.
Here is the plan. Sovereignty will not come to Iraq all at once. On June 30, Iraq will be divided into provinces, or occupation zones -- at different times and different places, both labels will be appropriate. There will be more than three zones, there will be at least 25, maybe as many as 100. Each zone will evolve towards civil government at its own rate. Some zones will need to be overseen using the rules of outright military occupation of a hostile nation. Other zones will be able to quickly establish full home rule, complete civil government in all matters except foreign policy and military affairs. Over six months, let's see how many zones can produce a local government that can rule without slaughtering a significant percentage of its own population, or stoning women for committing adultery, or burning the foreign nationals providing electricity and water.
Zones demonstrating the ability to live peacefully will be migrated towards full home rule. When enough provinces reach complete home rule, they will have important decisions to make. If enough zones decided to band together, they can form a state of their own. (There will have to be a few basic rules about a minimum number of provinces, or a minimum total population, and/or territorial contiguousness required to form a state.) They are free to welcome into their state other provinces that reach full home rule at a future time. Multi-province successor states may even reserve the right to join with other multi-province successor states.
Se eu fosse mais esperto no manejo do computador, faria um fórum a la "mini-ONU" para as pessoas tentarem administrar um Iraque destes. Seria uma bela experiência (como o Simcity, aquele bom joguinho de simulação da minha geração), principalmente para ver se funciona.
De qualquer forma, a proposta válida é da federação iraquiana, não a do mr. Morse. Mas isto não nos impede de pensar na proposta dele, certo?
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