Ciclos econômicos: visão austríaca
O Nobel deste ano foi para dois autores que contribuiram para a nossa compreensão dos ciclos econômicos. Ok, você já sabe disto. Agora, existem diversas hipóteses sobre ciclos. Em Economia, inclusive, estas hipóteses podem gerar inimizades (cientistas sociais têm estas manias...) pessoais.
Eu procuro sempre manter - dentro do possível - a mente aberta. Um bom artigo sobre a visão austríaca dos ciclos (nosso prof. Ubiratan Iorio é o grande divulgador no Brasil) é este, do prof. Roger Garrison (Auburn University).
Se você quiser entender mais sobre esta hipótese, este artigo é excelente.
Overconsumption and Forced Saving in the Mises-Hayek Theory of the Business Cycle - Roger W. Garrison - forthcoming in History of Political Economy vol. 36, no. 2 (summer) 2004
ABSTRACT
Overconsumption and forced saving, though seeming antonyms, are actually cognates that describe different phases of the business cycle, as variously understood by the Austrian economists. Recognizing the sense in which the two terms are conformable helps to resolve terminological and substantive differences within the Austrian school and to show why the term "forced saving" has been such an obstacle to understanding-both within and beyond that school. Accounting for overconsumption (as well as overinvestment) allows for some reconciliation between Austrian and mainstream views, while at the same time enhancing the internal logic of the Austrian theory. As an important aside, unperceived-or only dimly perceived-shortcomings in F. A. Hayek's theorizing may help explain why Hayek was largely ineffective in responding to his critics and why he failed to produce a timely and effective critique of Keynes's General Theory.
O Nobel deste ano foi para dois autores que contribuiram para a nossa compreensão dos ciclos econômicos. Ok, você já sabe disto. Agora, existem diversas hipóteses sobre ciclos. Em Economia, inclusive, estas hipóteses podem gerar inimizades (cientistas sociais têm estas manias...) pessoais.
Eu procuro sempre manter - dentro do possível - a mente aberta. Um bom artigo sobre a visão austríaca dos ciclos (nosso prof. Ubiratan Iorio é o grande divulgador no Brasil) é este, do prof. Roger Garrison (Auburn University).
Se você quiser entender mais sobre esta hipótese, este artigo é excelente.
Overconsumption and Forced Saving in the Mises-Hayek Theory of the Business Cycle - Roger W. Garrison - forthcoming in History of Political Economy vol. 36, no. 2 (summer) 2004
ABSTRACT
Overconsumption and forced saving, though seeming antonyms, are actually cognates that describe different phases of the business cycle, as variously understood by the Austrian economists. Recognizing the sense in which the two terms are conformable helps to resolve terminological and substantive differences within the Austrian school and to show why the term "forced saving" has been such an obstacle to understanding-both within and beyond that school. Accounting for overconsumption (as well as overinvestment) allows for some reconciliation between Austrian and mainstream views, while at the same time enhancing the internal logic of the Austrian theory. As an important aside, unperceived-or only dimly perceived-shortcomings in F. A. Hayek's theorizing may help explain why Hayek was largely ineffective in responding to his critics and why he failed to produce a timely and effective critique of Keynes's General Theory.
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