quarta-feira, dezembro 08, 2004

Teoria dos Jogos: Lição Preliminar

Eis aqui uma notícia legal para você que - como o Gilson - gosta de preparar exercícios sobre situações do mundo real: Oil market readies for OPEC action.

O legal da notícia é você notar a instabilidade de um cartel, mesmo um cartel como o da OPEP (em inglês: OPEC).

Trecho:The oil cartel's members seem to be divided into two groups: One wants to keep the price at elevated levels, while the other is concerned about a large inventory build that might push oil back under $30 a barrel.

The former group includes Iran and Venezuela, which called for cuts to the production quota last month, said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Mass.

Prices logged most of their recent declines last week, on the back of higher U.S. distillate and crude-oil supplies. If Wednesday's weekly inventory data show more large increases and prices drop further as a result, "both [groups] are likely to agree on a reduction in quotas," Lynch said.

Otherwise, OPEC is unlikely to do anything but call for greater adherence to the current daily quota, which the market estimates members are overshooting by about 1 million barrels, he said.